As an adjunct professor of finance at York University, I’m often associated with one familiar answer: “It depends.” It isn’t evasive—it’s an honest reflection of how financial markets work. Reality is rarely as simple as black or white, and 2025 reminded us how quickly the glass can look half full one moment and half empty the next.

For 2026, this analogy still holds.

The answer requires weighing both sides of the glass. As we look ahead to 2026—which is the third year of this new bull market cycle that began in 2022 (the historical average duration of global bull markets since the 1970s is about five years)—we are maintaining a constructive, half-full mindset, aware of the many forces that can tilt the outlook in either direction. 

These forces—or risks, including both upside and downside—include a further reacceleration in U.S. growth at a time when inflation is also rising, a continued acceleration in the global shift toward domestic priorities by countries worldwide (e.g., America First, Canada First, etc.), rising political influence over monetary policy (e.g., a more coordinated Fed with the U.S. executive branch), and the possibility of an AI slowdown.

Balancing these risks and opportunities, we believe investors should maintain an overweight allocation to risk assets such as global stocks, a slight underweight allocation to lower-risk assets such as cash and bonds, and a neutral allocation to alternatives. This view is supported by improving corporate fundamentals, more resilient consumer dynamics, ongoing policy support, expectations for easing trade tensions, and manageable inflation across most markets.