Signal or Noise? Staying Focused Amid the Headlines
- By Nadeem Kassam, CFA®, MBA | Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Operating Officer
- 7 Min Read
Share This Post
In a world flooded with headlines — many of them contradictory and anxiety-inducing — it’s increasingly difficult to distinguish signal from noise. Moreover, today’s news cycle, especially out of Washington, only amplifies the temptation to react emotionally.
But before doing so, it’s important to remember – we’ve navigated uncertainty before.
Over the past 30 years, markets have endured — and overcome — periods of heightened volatility and stress, some even more extreme than what we face now. One of the best measures of market anxiety is the VIX Index (VIX), which measures the expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. stock market.
As the chart below illustrates, spikes in the VIX have historically coincided with periods of acute market stress — triggered by a wide variety of economic, financial, and geopolitical events, both domestic and international. The recent spike in the VIX above 40 in early April was significant in the historical context, driven by the U.S. administration’s initiation of a global trade war.
We Have Been Here Before: The VIX’s Biggest Moments in History
Source: FactSet | Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel | As of: April 28, 2025
Why the Reaction Matters Less Than the Response
History shows that the short-term reaction to uncertainty — marked by volatility and drawdowns — is often just noise. What truly matters is what happens next. Whether it was the tech bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, or today’s geopolitical tensions, patient investors have been consistently rewarded.
In fact, the higher the spike in the VIX, the stronger the subsequent 1-, 2-, and 3-year equity returns.
The key insight is clear:
- Periods of heightened fear often create the greatest opportunities.
Moreover, those who stayed invested — or leaned in when others pulled back — benefitted meaningfully over time. This isn’t about trying to catch the exact bottom; it’s about recognizing that disciplined investors can turn volatility into a long-term advantage.
It Pays to Lean in, when Others Choose to Lean Back
Source: FactSet | Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel | As of: April 28, 2025
What We’re Watching Now:
1. Corporate America’s Response to the Tariff Turmoil
As we progress through the U.S. Q1/2025 earnings season, companies are providing crucial insights into how they are adapting to the new tariff environment. Early results reveal a notable trend: while many firms started the year with a positive outlook, an increasing number have since lowered their earnings expectations for upcoming quarters or withdrawn their guidance altogether.
The former is understandable given the prevailing uncertainty, but the latter is particularly concerning. This situation is not without precedent — similar caution was observed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it highlights the growing challenges of forecasting in an environment marked by rising uncertainty.
Tariff Turbulence: Earnings Expectations Plummet Amid Uncertainty
Source: FactSet | Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel | As of: April 28, 2025
2. Taking the Pulse of the U.S. Consumer
While much attention has focused on the tariff-driven disruption to financial markets — including stock, bond, and currency market volatility — the real economic engine, the U.S. consumer, remains the critical signal to watch, as consumer spending drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
A sustained slowdown in consumption, or even a significant shift in consumer behavior, could have substantial downstream effects if tariff uncertainty persists.
So far, consumers appear cautious yet resilient. This is reflected in recent declines in the Consumer Confidence Index, while retail sales have surged as consumers front-load purchases in anticipation of future supply chain disruptions due to tariffs. We continue to monitor these data points closely for early signs of deeper stress.
Tariff Uncertainty: Confidence Drops, Retail Sales Surge
Source: FactSet | Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel | As of: April 28, 2025
3. The Federal Reserve: Caught in the Crossfire
The Fed’s dual mandate — full employment and price stability (2% inflation) — puts it in a difficult position. Employment remains strong, but inflationary pressures remain above the 2% long-term target for the Fed, which could intensify the longer tariffs stay in place. Given these dynamics, we believe it is unlikely the Fed will “come to the rescue” of markets in the near-term.
Instead, the burden now rests squarely on the U.S. administration to provide clarity and tone down tariff rhetoric. We note, political pressure on the Fed is unlikely to alter its path — and that’s a good thing. An independent Fed remains critical for long-term economic health. We are carefully tracking employment trends, inflation developments, and any shifts in the monetary policy outlook.
U.S. Unemployment: Signal of Stability Amid Noise of Future Concerns
Source: FactSet | Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel | As of: April 28, 2025
Final Thoughts: Finding the Signal, Ignoring the Noise
In periods like these, it’s not about guessing whether the light is red or green. It’s about recognizing when we are in the yellow zone — a time for measured optimism, deliberate action, and disciplined investing.
The bottom line?
- Stay grounded.
- Stay diversified.
- Stay invested — but stay strategic.
At Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel, we are here to help you read the signals — not react to the sirens.
Sincerely,
Nadeem Kassam, CFA, MBA
Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Operating Officer
Marnoa Private Wealth Counsel
Phone: 519-707-0048
Email: nadeem@marnoa.ca
Website: marnoa.ca