Staying Invested in Quality Businesses in Volatile Times
- By Christopher De Sousa, CIM® | Portfolio Manager
- 7 Min Read
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When it comes to market volatility and risk, many people use these terms interchangeably, especially during downturns like the one we’re experiencing now. We don’t see it that way. Volatility and risk are not synonymous. Volatility measures how much prices swing up and down, whereas, in our view, risk represents the permanent loss of capital. Volatility and risk aren’t only “down market” problems—they exist in rising markets too. It’s just that people tend to discuss volatility and risk more when the market is selling off, even though these factors are present during good times as well. Volatility during downturns can trigger fear-driven behaviors like panic selling and loss aversion, distorting an individual’s perception of risk.
Volatility in rising markets may fuel greed-driven behaviors like herding (i.e., chasing rising prices to avoid missing gains) and overconfidence (i.e., overestimating one’s ability to predict market movements). Cognitive biases and risks manifest in both up and down markets. Having a well-defined investment framework can safeguard and mitigate emotional decision-making during periods of volatility. Managing your emotions can reduce the risk of permanent capital loss caused by impulsive actions driven by fear or greed.
The Cost of Panic: Staying Invested Beats Timing the Market
Market volatility is a natural component of investing that can create understandable investor concern. While emotional responses to market fluctuations are common, it’s crucial to evaluate the potential consequences of acting on these reactions. Pulling your money out of the market is a natural reaction, but it can be costly over the long term. Let’s go over a hypothetical example that follows the growth of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 index from 1995 to 2024. The chart provided below illustrates that missing out on the market’s best-performing days could negatively impact an investor’s overall returns.
Price Returns of the S&P 500 Index
Performance of a $10,000 Investment between 1995 – 2024
Source: FactSet; As of December 31, 2024
If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 index and stayed fully invested, your investment would have grown to about $115,669. However, if you missed just the ten best days in the market, your portfolio would have only reached $53,048—almost half as much. Investment returns deteriorate even further the longer an investor stays out of the market and misses out on the market’s best days. Charlie Munger said it best: “The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.” Pulling your money out of the market or constantly trading in and out of investments disrupts compounding and undermines the exponential growth that occurs over time. Staying invested through the market’s wild swings rather than reacting to volatility can improve your chances of achieving your long-term financial goals.
Investing in Quality: Secular Growth and Competitive Moats
In periods of short-term volatility, we remain calm and disciplined. Rather than reacting impulsively, we stick to our investment strategy of owning a collection of well-managed, high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, strong growth profiles, well-capitalized balance sheets, and high returns on capital. Many of our portfolio companies operate across multiple secular growth themes like artificial intelligence, cloud computing, e-commerce, electronic payments, genetic medicine, and digital media. Our portfolio companies are leveraging their competitive advantages—such as economies of scale, cost advantages, and network effects—to establish and expand leadership positions in these rapidly growing markets.
Three Quality Portfolio Holdings
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon has positioned itself as a leader across multiple secular growth themes by leveraging its substantial competitive advantages. The company dominates cloud computing through Amazon Web Services (AWS), which has become the market leader by enabling businesses to scale without maintaining physical servers. In e-commerce, Amazon’s core business revolutionized retail with its online marketplace, while its digital media offerings through Prime Video, Music, and Kindle platforms have created a comprehensive content ecosystem.
Amazon’s AI capabilities power everything from product recommendations to logistics optimization. These technological advantages are supported by Amazon’s massive fulfillment network, which creates economies of scale that enable fast shipping while reducing per-unit costs. The marketplace exhibits strong network effects as more sellers attract more buyers in a self-reinforcing cycle. Meanwhile, AWS’s scale allows them to offer competitive pricing while maintaining healthy margins, creating a sustainable cost advantage that competitors struggle to match.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple has integrated itself into multiple secular growth markets by drawing on its unique competitive position. Its digital media ecosystem encompasses Apple Music, TV+, and the App Store, creating a comprehensive content platform for users. In electronic payments, Apple Pay and Apple Card have become significant players, leveraging the company’s massive user base. Apple’s on-device machine learning and AI power a wide range of features across its product line, from Siri to iCloud, seamlessly connecting the entire Apple ecosystem.
These offerings are strengthened by Apple’s economies of scale, with production volumes allowing for favorable component pricing and manufacturing terms. The iOS ecosystem demonstrates powerful network effects as more developers create apps for a growing consumer base. Perhaps most significantly, Apple’s vertical integration—designing their own chips while controlling both software and hardware—creates efficiency and performance advantages that competitors simply cannot replicate, resulting in both premium pricing power and sustained margins.
Costco (COST)
Costco has capitalized on long-term, secular growth trends by developing a unique business model and building significant competitive advantages. Costco’s massive scale and purchasing power allow it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers and uphold its low markup policy—usually around 14%, far lower than the typical retail industry average of 25-50%. Costco’s limited SKU model—offering around 4,000 items compared to the 30,000 or more typically found at traditional retailers—substantially reduces operational complexity and costs. Costco’s international expansion into markets such as China, Japan, and Europe builds on the rising purchasing power of expanding middle-class demographics. International markets remain underpenetrated, and profit margins in these markets are matching or exceeding U.S. locations.
Costco’s Kirkland Signature private label has evolved into a premium brand across numerous categories through its reputation for quality at value prices, further strengthening customer loyalty and creating cost advantages that competitors struggle to match. In e-commerce, Costco has developed an online presence that complements its warehouse model. Recent enhancements and investments in Costco Logistics and Costco Next have improved logistics capabilities and the online shopping experience, driving sustainable double-digit e-commerce growth.
With membership renewal rates consistently around 90%, Costco has established a virtuous cycle where increased scale improves supplier relationships and operational efficiency, allowing the company to continually pass savings to members while expanding into complementary growth areas. These initiatives collectively deepen customer engagement and support long-term membership growth.
The Marnoa Approach
We have a methodical and research-intensive investment process focused on finding and investing in the most promising growth businesses for the long term. Our process often involves monitoring companies for extended periods—sometimes years—until we gain the conviction needed to include them in our portfolio. When searching for investment ideas, we don’t divide our investable universe into value stocks and growth stocks. We find this to be an oversimplified framework that puts too much focus on the valuation multiple and neglects the complexity of assessing a business’s inherent quality and long-term potential.
Rather than dividing the market into arbitrary value versus growth classifications, we focus on buying exceptional businesses at a reasonable price with durable competitive advantages while avoiding those with weaker fundamentals. This quality-centric framework prioritizes sustainable economic moats, superior management, and resilient cash flows over what is deemed “cheap” or “expensive” today. On the flipside, we decide to sell a company out of the portfolio if we have identified a better investment opportunity or if we misjudged the company’s business model and growth trajectory.
Final Thoughts
Moving forward, I remain confident in our investment strategy. We believe we own a portfolio of well-managed businesses that we understand deeply. These are businesses we have held for many years, and we remain optimistic about their growth trajectory over the next five years. Market volatility can be unsettling. Patience and discipline are of the utmost importance right now. Avoid making impulsive decisions like pulling your money out of the market. History reminds us that turbulent periods are temporary. Today’s market dislocations could present compelling investment opportunities.
Stay the course. This too shall pass.
P.S. If you missed my previous letter, read it here: Building Wealth Through Quality Investing
Christopher De Sousa, CIM®
Portfolio Manager
(519) 707-0053
marnoa.ca